538 Presidential Prediction 2024

538 Presidential Prediction 2024.  — from 75 days out — around when we relaunched our 2024 forecast — to election day, the expected change in margin is closer to 6 points.  — an updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Trust markets, not presidential polls.  — 538 is excited to unveil our forecast for vice president kamala harris and former president donald trump.